Sylvie Kauffmann, a former correspondent in Moscow and Washington and a member of Le Monde's editorial board, answers questions about Trump's second term as US President
and his impact on Europe
“Donald Trump's election for a second term will have consequences beyond the United States and in Europe in particular. The Republican has repeatedly tested the United States' relationship with its historical allies and he notoriously promised to settle the war in Ukraine in "24 hours".
But that doesn't say what Trump will actually do once in office. What do the president-elect's first declarations and appointments suggest? And will he deal with a united or divided Europe?”—Le Monde
This Q & A was held virtually. To read as the questions were addressed, start at the bottom of this Substack.
This is the end of our Q&A. Thank you very much for your great questions, looking forward to discussing Trump again with you on Le Monde in English!
Sylvie Kauffmann (Columnist)
4:47 PM (Paris)
Many Ukrainians I know seem happy about his reelection, hoping for change. Given he often oscilates between extremes, could we actually expect a positive change when it comes to US support for Ukraine?
Haris
Hi Haris,
This is a very good observation. Many Ukrainians, including in the leadership, have been frustrated over the past several months by the Biden administration's hesitations, particularly by its refusal to grant permission to carry deep strikes within Russian territory using Western long-range missiles. I have even heard the nickname "Snake Sullivan" for Jake Sullivan, Biden's National Security Advisor. They pointed out that Trump, during his first term, provided them with the first lethal equipment, the Javelin anti-tank missiles, that Obama had denied them. So those who were most critical of Biden hoped for a positive change if Trump was elected. Whether this positive change will actually happen is anybody's guess. I think it will very much depend on President Putin's attitude and also in part on China's position, since it supports Russia in this war.
Sylvie Kauffmann (Columnist)
4:39 PM (Paris)
What will be the consequences of the political crisis in Germany for the union of Europe?
Clem
Hi Clem,
The first consequence of the political crisis in Germany is that it is missing in action at this crucial moment when Europeans should be getting together and showing a united front to the future Trump administration. The general election has been set for February 23, which means that Chancellor Scholz and his team will be busy campaigning when Trump is inaugurated and possibly when negotiations start over Ukraine. And it will probably take at least another month or two, or more, to build a governing coalition after the election.
This is the odd and unfortunate situation in Europe at the moment: its two biggest countries, Germany and France, which are supposed to provide the European "engine," are weakened by domestic political and economic problems. This gives more space to a new player, Poland, to be more active: this is exactly what the Polish prime minister, Donald Tusk, has been doing since Trump's victory, trying to coordinate a European common position to strengthen Ukraine in the event of a negotiation.
Poland calls for Europe to wake up after Trump's victory
Published on November 7, 2024, at 4:06 pm (Paris) 2 min read
Sylvie Kauffmann (Columnist)
4:27 PM (Paris)
Does Trump care about Macron, one of the first leaders to have congratulated him on November 5?
Erika
Hi Erika,
You are right: Macron was actually the third European leader to congratulate Trump on November 6. The first one of course was Viktor Orban, who celebrated on X "the biggest comeback in American political history," the second was the Austrian chancellor. Macron certainly hopes to resume the friendly relationship he had with Trump during their first term (Macron was elected president for the first time in 2017), even though he failed to convince him not to withdraw from the JCPOA (the Iranian nuclear deal) and from the Paris climate agreement. But they managed to have a working relationship, one that would be very helpful to have this time too.
But things are different today. The world is much more dangerous and unstable, a war is raging in the heart of Europe and the 47th president of the United States will most likely be more radical than the 45th. Also, Macron is weaker than during his own first term because of the political crisis at home and the fact that he no longer has a majority. So it remains to be seen who, with Trump, will speak for Europe. Orban will certainly have a close relationship with him but he can't claim to speak for Europe.
Sylvie Kauffmann (Columnist)
4:10 PM (Paris)
Can Biden grant Ukraine membership to NATO invitation before the end of his term?
Ali
Hi Ali
Yes, theoretically, President Biden can state that he is in favor of extending an invitation to Ukraine to join NATO − something he has consistently been opposed to so far. This was part of the "victory plan" President Volodymyr Zelensky presented both to Biden and Trump in September. But this is not the most likely scenario.
Read more
'Zelensky hopes to get an invitation for Ukraine to join NATO out of Biden before he leaves the White House'
Published on September 18, 2024, at 10:23 am (Paris) 4 min read
Sylvie Kauffmann (Columnist)
4:01 PM (Paris)
Are the Europeans hoping to obtain anything from the Biden administration in the next two months? Something that couldn't be undone immediately by Trump
Liam
Hi Liam,
Yes indeed. This was the subject of the talks held yesterday in Brussels between Secretary of State Antony Blinken and NATO leaders and officials. The idea is to strengthen Ukraine's armed forces and possibly provide them with more equipment in the short term so that Ukrainian leaders are in a stronger position when a negotiation with Russia eventually starts. But the Biden administration and Europeans must act very quickly, as the situation on the frontline is deteriorating.
Read more
Ukraine's dashed hopes after three months of an incursion in Russia that was supposed to change the course of the war
Published on November 9, 2024, at 4:00 pm (Paris) 13 min read
Sylvie Kauffmann (Columnist)
3:58 PM (Paris) Further reading
The Republican president-elect has stepped up his threats to withdraw the US from NATO, to which it is the main contributor. Allies anticipate a symbolic withdrawal from the coordination of military aid to Ukraine.
NATO, better prepared for Trump than in 2016, is still leaping into the unknown
Published on November 9, 2024, at 11:45 am (Paris) 6 min read
3:53 PM (Paris)
Are the Europeans involved in negotiations now with Russia to end the war or do they just want to continue to send aid to Ukraine hoping that the Russians capitulate? Trump says he is going to appoint a special negotiator.
Thomas Winterbottom
Hello Thomas,
Very good question! As far as we know, there are no negotiations going on at the moment. Most chances are that in Trump's mind, any negotiation to end the war in Ukraine will be held between Russia and the United States – hopefully also with Ukraine involved. But he has never mentioned the possibility of inviting Europeans to sit at the table. This is a huge issue for them, particularly for France, because what is at stake in a possible settlement of the war in Ukraine is not only the future of Ukraine but also the whole security environment of Europe. President Emmanuel Macron said on Tuesday: "Let me be clear: nothing must be decided on Ukraine without the Ukrainians, nor on Europe without the Europeans".
Sylvie Kauffmann (Columnist)
3:44 PM (Paris)
Do you foresee Trump following through with his threats of tariffs?
Ricardo Bruinton
Hi Ricardo,
Yes! I think this is one of the few things we can safely predict, unfortunately. The EU is better prepared this time, but it remains to be seen whether Europeans have really learnt "the art of the deal".
Sylvie Kauffmann (Columnist)
3:44 PM (Paris)
How will Trump deal with NATO and America’s défense within Europe ?
Nigel
Hello Nigel,
We don't yet know exactly how Trump will proceed. What we do know is how he behaved in his first term: he accused the Europeans of being free riders in NATO, of taking advantage of the United States and he demanded they spend more for their defense. The situation has improved on that issue: there are now 23 NATO members, out of 30, who have reached the minimum of 2% of their GDP in military spending. It would not be surprising that Trump now raises the threshold to 3%. Some Europeans fear that under a Trump presidency, the US might withdraw from NATO, but that seems highly unlikely, as NATO is also useful to the US. And if Europeans spend more for their defense, logically they will buy more American equipment, which is good for the American economy.
Sylvie Kauffmann (Columnist)
3:33 PM (Paris)
Dear Readers,
The Q&A with Sylvie Kauffmann will begin shortly.
3:30 PM (Paris) Further reading
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban hosted a European Political Community summit in Budapest on November 7, followed by a European Council meeting.
As Trump returns, Europe's unity is tested: 'We're in a boat that's going to weather a huge storm'
Published on November 8, 2024, at 12:42 pm (Paris) 5 min read
2:50 PM (Paris) Further reading
The election of Donald Trump has plunged Ukraine into the unknown. The country is preparing for a 'very delicate diplomacy' when he takes office on January 20, 2025.
Read more
Ukrainian leaders fear Trump's future appointments
Published on November 13, 2024, at 4:15 pm (Paris) 3 min read
2:45 PM (Paris) Further reading
Speaking before members of the European Parliament, the European Union's new high representative for foreign affairs put forward a slightly different vision from the one held by her predecessor, Josep Borrell.
Kaja Kallas tells MEPs she will support EU aid to Ukraine until 'victory'
Published yesterday at 9:16 am (Paris) 3 min read
2:40 PM (Paris) Further reading
Le Monde's editorial
Donald Trump's re-election to a second term on November 6, and the success of the Republican Party, of which he has taken total control, represent a major turning point for the United States.
The end of an American world
Published on November 6, 2024, at 11:15 am (Paris) 2 min read
2:32 PM (Paris) Further reading
Faced with the prospect of a settlement of the war in Ukraine from which they could be excluded, some European countries, such as Poland, are taking action, writes Sylvie Kauffmann in her latest column.
'One week after Trump's election, a new alignment is emerging in Europe'
Published on November 13, 2024, at 4:31 pm (Paris) 3 min read
A bientôt,
Sara